Very strong semiconductor and good EDA growth in Q3 2017

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Global semiconductor revenue hit a record high of $107.9 billion in Q3 2017, growing strongly by 22.2% vs. Q3 2016 (SIA), following 23.7% growth in Q2 2017 and 18.1% in Q1 2017, with 2017 full year forecasts now nudging up towards 20%. In October, Gartner raised its forecast for 2017 semiconductor revenue growth once more to 19.7% (from prior forecasts of 16.8%, 12% and 7.2%), to $411 Billion, representing the strongest growth since 2010.
The very strong semiconductor industry growth is more than double the leading EDA companies’ Q3 2017 growth rates. Synopsys grew revenues by 9.9% Q3* 2017 vs Q3* 2016, while Cadence reported quite similar 8.8% growth:

For comparison, the % growth rates in the previous quarter, Q2* 2017 versus Q2* 2016 were Synopsys 13%, Cadence 5.7%, ESD Alliance 9.8% and semiconductor 23.7%.
Examining the delta in revenue growth in dollars, Synopsys and Cadence’s Q3* 2017 vs Q3* 2016 revenues increased by $62.9M and $39.2M respectively. Synopsys and Cadence both surpassed their own mid-point revenue guidance for the quarter, Synopsys quite dramatically by $47.1M and Cadence by a more modest $5.4M:

Guidance for the next quarter

The EDA companies’ own guidance (mid-point) for Q4* 2017 equates to percentage revenue growth as follows: Synopsys: 15.3% ($99.6M growth to $752.5M); Cadence 5.5% growth ($26M growth to $495M), as Synopsys’ growth rate moves more closely in sync with the very strong semiconductor revenue growth:

In summary, Q3 2017 global semiconductor revenue grew very strongly by 22.2% to a new record high of $107.9 Billion, while EDA revenues grew more moderately: Synopsys by 9.9% and Cadence by 8.8%. The EDA companies own guidance for Q4* 2017 is for Synopsys to grow revenues by 15.3% and Cadence by 5.5%.

The author, Gerry Byrne is the founder of edalics, the only independent EDA Budget Management advisor to leading semiconductor companies.

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* Based on each company’s reported financial quarterly data which most closely match that calendar quarter.